By Jason Milen | Calculated Risk | Business Growth Strategy
For years, we had the answer sitting right in front of us. Our peers in the car wash industry kept telling us the same thing: lower your membership prices, grow your base, build recurring revenue.
And for years, we ignored them.
Not because we were arrogant. Because we were afraid. And the fear felt completely rational.
By the time we finally took the risk we’d been avoiding, we grew from 216 members to over 6,000 per location and added $13 million in recurring revenue annually. The risk we’d been protecting ourselves from turned out to be the growth lever we needed all along.
This is the story of why we waited, what it cost us, and what finally made us jump.
The Fear That Kept Us Stuck
My grandfather launched a membership program at Jax Kar Wash in the late 1950s. By 2008, we had about 1,200 members paying annually and washing around six times a month. That was our break-even point, just under six visits.
Here’s the math that kept us up at night: if we lowered prices and attracted more members who washed that often, we wouldn’t just shrink our margins. We’d go under. The numbers were real, and they were terrifying.
So, when our industry peers kept pushing us to change, we pushed back. We’d had a membership program since the 1950s. We said we knew better.
What we had was fear dressed up as expertise.
The question we never asked ourselves was this: what if the fear is built on an assumption that isn’t actually true? What if new members, attracted by lower prices, don’t behave the same way our current members do? What if we’ve been protecting ourselves from a risk that doesn’t exist in the way we think it does?
We never tested it. We just assumed the worst and held the line.
The cost of inaction is always invisible until it’s catastrophic. We were so focused on what we could lose that we never calculated what we were already losing by standing still.
The Years We Left on the Table
Every year we didn’t change was a year we left money on the table. Not hypothetical money. Real revenue, real members, real stability that we could have had but chose not to pursue because the risk felt too high.
Our revenue graph looked like a roller coaster. Rainy weeks meant we couldn’t predict payroll. Slow seasons created anxiety that had nothing to do with how well we were running the business. The unpredictability was the cost of our caution, and we’d normalized it so completely that we stopped seeing it as a problem we could solve.
Meanwhile, the operators who had taken the risk were building something different. Stable monthly recurring revenue. Customers who thought about them as a habit rather than an occasional transaction. A business that didn’t live and die by the weather forecast.
We could see it. We just couldn’t make ourselves move.
The Bus in Knoxville
It took a July day in 2008 to finally force the question we’d been avoiding.
My dad and I were on a tour bus in Knoxville, Tennessee, touring car washes with a group of operators. Our friend there walked us through his membership numbers. Different pricing structure, different results, different reality than the one we’d been assuming was inevitable for us.
I remember sitting on that bus shivering, and it wasn’t from the air conditioning. The idea forming in my head was one I’d been resisting for years: actually lower our prices. Nobody does that in our business. It was the kind of move that felt wrong before you even ran the numbers.
My dad turned to me and said, ‘Do you think our members will keep washing more often than these guys’ members? This makes me really nervous.’
I told him, ‘We can’t be the only car wash in America whose members behave completely differently. Doing nothing might be the bigger risk.’
That was the moment. Not because we stopped being afraid. But because we finally started asking the right question. Not: what could we lose if we move? But: what are we already losing by staying still?
The Jump
We didn’t dabble. When we decided to move, we committed fully.
We hired a developer and built our own CRM and billing system from scratch. This was 2008, long before you could ask an AI to write your code. We upgraded our point of sale with RFID tags, built member-only lanes, set up automatic monthly billing, trained the entire team, and started paying commissions on membership sales.
Then we did something harder: we shifted the entire cultural focus of the company. We stopped obsessing over single-wash add-ons and made membership the filter for every decision. Does this grow the membership? Does this support the member experience? If not, it waits.
And then we ran the experiment. We didn’t drop prices all at once. We went from a six-times multiple down to four, then three, then under two. Each step was a measured test. We watched what happened to visit frequency before we moved to the next level.
What we found was the opposite of what we’d feared. As prices came down, visit frequency dropped. But the number of members grew so fast that the revenue math transformed entirely. The risk we’d been protecting ourselves from wasn’t the risk we’d imagined.
What Happened When We Finally Took the Risk
Membership grew from 216 to over 6,000 per location. Recurring revenue increased by $13 million annually. The revenue graph that had looked like a roller coaster started to look like a steady rising line.
But the most significant change wasn’t the numbers. It was what we’d been afraid of all along turned out to be the very thing that transformed the business.
Our customers stopped thinking about individual washes. They started thinking about always having a clean car. We’d changed their habit, not just their behavior. The average went from about two washes per year to around three per month. People realized they didn’t have to gamble on the weather anymore.
And when COVID hit and the governor of Michigan shut us down for a month, the recurring revenue base we’d built was the reason we could survive it. Monthly membership fees kept coming in while we figured out the next move. The risk we took in 2008 protected us in 2020 in ways we couldn’t have predicted.
The Real Lesson
The lesson from this story isn’t about membership pricing. It’s about what happens when you confuse the feeling of safety with actual safety.
For years, holding our pricing felt like the responsible choice. We were protecting margins. We were being careful. We were doing what business leaders are supposed to do when things are uncertain.
What we were actually doing was paying a hidden tax every single month in the form of unpredictable revenue, weather-dependent anxiety, and a ceiling we couldn’t see because we never tested whether it was real.
The cost of risk avoidance doesn’t show up on P&L. It’s invisible until the moment you take the risk you were avoiding and see what was on the other side.
For us, what was on the other side was the business we should have built years earlier.
The risk of action and the risk of inaction are both real. The difference is that only one of them is invisible until it’s too late.
Jason Milen is a keynote speaker and business growth strategist who helps leaders build predictable revenue, scalable growth, and legendary results. His Unavoidable Risk keynote tells the full story of the risks Jax took, the ones they avoided, and the system he built to make better decisions under pressure. Learn more or book Jason at JasonMilen.com.